Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
